As a result, some analysts question, for example, if the year 2014 will be as disastrous as 1914, with World War I, which precipitated the self-destruction of Europe. From the historical point of view, it seems that years ending in "14" tone century in war or peace. "When did this happen? What are the elements recorded in the years ending in "14" and have led to an era of war or peace? Trend might confirm 2014 there situations today commonalities with previous centuries ?
The questions mentioned above have been put Alexandre Melnik, born in Moscow, associate professor of geopolitics at ICN Business School Nancy-Metz (France), who says, "without being superstitious or plots or Marxist Theorizing convinced that "history has a meaning", "believes that throughout the ages, years ending in" 14 "have a historically specific, very strong. The events that marked their DNA created their ages, especially in terms of war-peace dichotomy. Moreover, in his novel, who scored the phrase "war and peace" in the world culture heritage, Leo Tolstoy was inspired by Napoleon's campaign in Russia, which began in force in 1812 and ended in a glorious all the abdication Emperor on 4 April 1814. Much for us back in history, Ian Hus, Czech theologian, was closed in 1414, following the excommunication by the Church because of heresy, for next year to be burned alive. Protestantism see him as a precursor rise to reforms, the series of conflicts and wars. After a century in 1514 instead gives the example of peace in an explosive initial situation: the first Portuguese ships reached the island Tunmen, near Canton, and hit the Chinese refusal to allow the deck to land their . After long and tough negotiations, reached a bilateral agreement. After two centuries, Russia, about recovery, feeling the wind in the stern, crushes, in 1714, Sweden in the battle of the Great War in the North Storykoro occupy Finland and expand military first elements of the tsarist empire on the Baltic countries. 1814 is obviously at the beginning of the Congress of Vienna, which outlined physiognomy and major geopolitical balance in Europe during the 19th century, after the collapse of Napoleon's empire. This Congress will remain in history as the first attempt shaped geopolitics following diplomatic talks to establish European peace based on national balance of power, a source of inspiration for future supranational bodies such as the League of Nations and the UN. Finally, do not forget that the previous century began truly geopolitical June 28, 1914, with the assassination in Sarajevo of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro - Hungarian throne, and his wife, Sofia, the by Bosnian Serb nationalist, Gavrilo Princip, a member of a secret society. It was the event that triggered World War. Because of this it makes sense that in January 2014, and the dawn of the 21st century to learn the lessons of historical experience, not to fall into the trap "passeisme" and without forgetting that history does not repeat the same again.
Asked who was, each time, the geopolitical consequences of events that reminded Prof. Alexandre Melnik responds that "in each case, those implications were crucial. The Congress of Vienna cooled euphoria of the French Revolution in 1789, which meant that, on a global scale, reflecting universal values that transcend national borders and barriers erased, as he consecrated the idea that national interests to be at the origin of the famous "realpolitik "which conceptualized a later Henry Kissinger, Secretary of State, one of the architects of American diplomacy during the" cold War "(...) in his part, World War I broke a hundred years, the program initialize secolulului 20, which froze development of the whole planet, due to the conflict of ideologies, with its terrible legacy of totalitarianism: fascism, Nazism, communism.
What key factors and events may set the tone of this century? The question before answering the teacher recalled that the main feature of 2014, compared with the past, is the fundamental fact that it will increase and will be increasingly heard all about real change in the world that lives around mankind. The magnitude of this change in civilization is comparable to the Renaissance of the late 15th century, the routine use of early printing in the West , or the invention of electricity during the second industrial revolution at the intersection of 19th and 20th centuries. This gigantic change can be measured by a semantic metamorphosis: the same words that we use for decades, before we think too much of their original meaning, does not mean today the same as before: time, space, intelligence, education, etc.. (...) Year 2014 will be, above all, the acceleration of globalization, with the two main driving forces which completely changes the planetary data, reflected mainly by the loss of the West "its monopoly on History" held for several centuries, in favor of new poles of excellence in steady ascent: China, Brazil, India, South Korea, Russia, etc.. - That adapt better and faster to the imperatives of the new world.
Deserves attention and Iranian issue, and we can ask to what extent this file thorny one key to determining whether the 21st century will be a war or peace. Consequently, the question arises whether this ability to resume dialogue with Iran will be determined from such a perspective. These Ardavan Amir-Aslani answer questions, lawyer and essayist, a specialist in Middle East, claiming that 2014 will bring the final integration of Iran into the community of nations and kingdoms that despite attempts of Persian Gulf oil. Among the arguments that he brings and that is that this country has a trans influence. Finally, when talking about Iran envisages a country that has its subsoil largest gas reserves in the world and is ranked third in terms of oil reserves. Iran is not only an energy giant, but a civilization, and this need it is articulated on three axes: regional stability, calming religious conflict and power Asian and European applications. As a result, the return of the concert of nations will result in a first stage tipping center of interest from the decaying old western oil kingdoms in the southern Persian Gulf to the north of this sea, that Iran, Iraq and Turkey .
Following the same line of comparison between 2014 and 1914, use the phrase "parallel uncomfortable" and argues that "the trigger a major conflict that no one sees it, will appear, this time not from the Balkans but China Sea ". At the dawn of 1914, optimism was generally recalls Business Insider. Globalization and new technologies (telephone, navigation steam train) were an everyday reality. A few months later, the world has entered the war that cost the lives of nine million people and pushed Europe into chaos and barbarism of Nazi and Stalinist totalitarianism borders were closed, and the winds of globalization economist John Maynard Keynes has reappeared only in 1945, and certainly in the '90s, when Eastern Europe and China came into play. Memory is very vivid horrors of the world wars. The parallels between 1914 and 2014 are not lacking though. USA are the UK since then, a superpower in decline, unable to guarantee global security. Its main trading partner, China (1914, UK was Germany), means economic strength and comfort to becoming a military power pushed long frustrated nationalism and venturing into an arms race .
And modern Japan is France in 1914. Superpower ally whose hegemony delete old and a regional power in decline. It can rightly challenge these parallels. There is, however, something that is not objectionable, blindness and complacency. Politicians are playing with nationalism as a century ago. In China, anti-Japanese propaganda never ceases to expand and Japan replica resorting to the old warlike rhetoric. But to make the world safer than it takes first American diplomacy more active and effective. Obama must cease to be a spectator of world evolution undecided. Withdrawing from the Middle East, and commitments without taking on Syria, maneuvering during the Arab revolutions and not giving a new place in world issues new giants, China, Brazil, India, Indonesia, American diplomacy again shows a lack of ambition and ignorance lessons of history.
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